August 13, 2011
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SHE can rouse a crowd. She preaches a doctrinaire form of Republicanism that appeals to party activists. She was born 100 miles up the road—as she endlessly reminded locals in advance of the Republican Party’s “straw poll” in Ames, Iowa on Saturday. So it is perhaps no wonder that Michele Bachmann, a congresswoman from Minnesota, triumphed at this ritual moment in the race for the Republican presidential nomination.
The victory is a big boost for Mrs Bachmann’s campaign. She can now more plausibly refute criticism that her politics are too extreme to allow her to progress very far. The straw poll is the most prominent event in the campaign before the Iowa caucuses in February; Mrs Bachmann now has five full months to raise money off the back of her success.
Tim Pawlenty, a former governor of Minnesota, was perhaps the biggest loser. He placed third, with 14% of the vote to Mrs Bachmann’s 29%. That may not seem like a terrible result in a crowded field of ten candidates. But Mr Pawlenty campaigned frantically. He is from a neighbouring state, and was thought to have an excellent local machine. Moreover, in recent weeks he has implored Iowans to choose his substance over Mrs Bachmann’s style—a message that apparently fell flat with the Republican faithful.
Mr Pawlenty insists he is still in the race. After all, as supporters of all the losing candidates were quick to point out, the straw poll is a poor predictor of the winner of the Iowa caucuses, let alone the Republican nomination or the presidency. In fact, only three of the past six victors have gone on to win the caucuses, only two the nomination and only one (George W. Bush in 2000) the presidency. Mitt Romney won in Ames last time around, only to lose the caucuses ignominiously to Mike Huckabee. John McCain, the Republican Party’s nominee in 2008, did not bother to campaign for the straw poll in 2007, and received less than 1% of the vote.
Straw poll participants are not representative of even Republican primary voters, let alone the general electorate. Any Iowa resident can attend, but in practice, it is only the most dedicated Republicans who are willing to give up most of a Saturday to drive to Ames to take part. They tend to be more religious and more conservative than Republican primary voters. Candidates with small but devoted followings, like Ron Paul, a libertarian from Texas with a small but devoted following, can do well. Mr Paul placed second, just one percentage point behind Mrs Bachmann, but pundits still put his chances of winning the nomination at next-to-nothing.
The atmosphere at the event is more carnival than campaign rally. Candidates lay on food and entertainment to try to lure supporters to the venue. They even provide buses to ferry in adoring followers from the furthest corners of the state. Your correspondent spotted one labelled “Ron Paul #37” on his way to sample some of the excellent barbecued pork laid on by Mr Pawlenty. The acolytes of Thaddeus McCotter, an obscure congressman from Michigan with an appealing line in self-deprecating humour, were handing out red, white and blue popsicles. Mrs Bachmann offered something called a “beef sundae”, an apt analogy for her sunny yet muscular bearing.
Many of the punters appear to have come more for the free food and fun day out than for the vote itself. Children leapt about on bouncy castles like politicians jockeying for attention; families picnicked on the shady lawns that surround the venue. One participant admitted to being a Democrat who had come simply to hear Buddy Holly’s former band, which was playing for Rick Santorum. The National Rifle Association, various anti-abortion outfits and a lobby group for wind power, among others, set up stalls and handed out goodies to passers-by. Mr Paul, who likes to bang on about sound money, invited children to fling themselves down a huge inflatable slope labelled “The Sliding Dollar”.
Several candidates gave all this a miss. Mr Romney, the current frontrunner for the nomination, did not campaign this time around, although his name was on the ballot. He won only 3% of the vote. Rick Perry, the governor of Texas, stole some of the event’s thunder by officially declaring himself a candidate in South Carolina while the voting was underway in Ames. He was not on the ballot, but his supporters urged participants to write his name in all the same. But word of his candidacy did not seem to set the straw poll on fire: he secured just under 4% of the vote that way.
Candidates with the prominence and fund-raising prowess of Mr Romney and Mr Perry can afford to shrug off the results of the straw poll. So can those like Jon Hunstman, the former governor of Utah, who have not bothered to campaign on the grounds that they are too moderate to get very far with the purists of Ames. But the event can help winnow the middle of the field. Along with Mr Pawlenty, Rick Santorum, a former senator from Pennsylvania, and Herman Cain, a pizza-mogul-turned-radio-host, must be wondering about the viability of their campaigns.
American politics | Democracy in America
SHE can rouse a crowd. She preaches a doctrinaire form of Republicanism that appeals to party activists. She was born 100 miles up the road—as she endlessly reminded locals in advance of the Republican Party’s “straw poll” in Ames, Iowa on Saturday. So it is perhaps no wonder that Michele Bachmann, a congresswoman from Minnesota, triumphed at this ritual moment in the race for the Republican presidential nomination.
The victory is a big boost for Mrs Bachmann’s campaign. She can now more plausibly refute criticism that her politics are too extreme to allow her to progress very far. The straw poll is the most prominent event in the campaign before the Iowa caucuses in February; Mrs Bachmann now has five full months to raise money off the back of her success.
Tim Pawlenty, a former governor of Minnesota, was perhaps the biggest loser. He placed third, with 14% of the vote to Mrs Bachmann’s 29%. That may not seem like a terrible result in a crowded field of ten candidates. But Mr Pawlenty campaigned frantically. He is from a neighbouring state, and was thought to have an excellent local machine. Moreover, in recent weeks he has implored Iowans to choose his substance over Mrs Bachmann’s style—a message that apparently fell flat with the Republican faithful.
Mr Pawlenty insists he is still in the race. After all, as supporters of all the losing candidates were quick to point out, the straw poll is a poor predictor of the winner of the Iowa caucuses, let alone the Republican nomination or the presidency. In fact, only three of the past six victors have gone on to win the caucuses, only two the nomination and only one (George W. Bush in 2000) the presidency. Mitt Romney won in Ames last time around, only to lose the caucuses ignominiously to Mike Huckabee. John McCain, the Republican Party’s nominee in 2008, did not bother to campaign for the straw poll in 2007, and received less than 1% of the vote.
Straw poll participants are not representative of even Republican primary voters, let alone the general electorate. Any Iowa resident can attend, but in practice, it is only the most dedicated Republicans who are willing to give up most of a Saturday to drive to Ames to take part. They tend to be more religious and more conservative than Republican primary voters. Candidates with small but devoted followings, like Ron Paul, a libertarian from Texas with a small but devoted following, can do well. Mr Paul placed second, just one percentage point behind Mrs Bachmann, but pundits still put his chances of winning the nomination at next-to-nothing.
The atmosphere at the event is more carnival than campaign rally. Candidates lay on food and entertainment to try to lure supporters to the venue. They even provide buses to ferry in adoring followers from the furthest corners of the state. Your correspondent spotted one labelled “Ron Paul #37” on his way to sample some of the excellent barbecued pork laid on by Mr Pawlenty. The acolytes of Thaddeus McCotter, an obscure congressman from Michigan with an appealing line in self-deprecating humour, were handing out red, white and blue popsicles. Mrs Bachmann offered something called a “beef sundae”, an apt analogy for her sunny yet muscular bearing.
Many of the punters appear to have come more for the free food and fun day out than for the vote itself. Children leapt about on bouncy castles like politicians jockeying for attention; families picnicked on the shady lawns that surround the venue. One participant admitted to being a Democrat who had come simply to hear Buddy Holly’s former band, which was playing for Rick Santorum. The National Rifle Association, various anti-abortion outfits and a lobby group for wind power, among others, set up stalls and handed out goodies to passers-by. Mr Paul, who likes to bang on about sound money, invited children to fling themselves down a huge inflatable slope labelled “The Sliding Dollar”.
Several candidates gave all this a miss. Mr Romney, the current frontrunner for the nomination, did not campaign this time around, although his name was on the ballot. He won only 3% of the vote. Rick Perry, the governor of Texas, stole some of the event’s thunder by officially declaring himself a candidate in South Carolina while the voting was underway in Ames. He was not on the ballot, but his supporters urged participants to write his name in all the same. But word of his candidacy did not seem to set the straw poll on fire: he secured just under 4% of the vote that way.
Candidates with the prominence and fund-raising prowess of Mr Romney and Mr Perry can afford to shrug off the results of the straw poll. So can those like Jon Hunstman, the former governor of Utah, who have not bothered to campaign on the grounds that they are too moderate to get very far with the purists of Ames. But the event can help winnow the middle of the field. Along with Mr Pawlenty, Rick Santorum, a former senator from Pennsylvania, and Herman Cain, a pizza-mogul-turned-radio-host, must be wondering about the viability of their campaigns.
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